A confirmed US-Iran deal signing dominates the outlook: a fast Middle East de-escalation is set to pull warships back from Hormuz and drag Brent crude toward $70, even as Trump's high-volatility deal-making leaves room for reversal. Elsewhere, GlobalSign's certificate revocations are fracturing Russia's internet trust stack, while a sharply corrected read on US mortgage rates — actually near 6.5%, not 6.8% — makes a jump above 7% unlikely this summer.

I substantially mark down the merged Bull/Bear estimate (0.72, Skeptic 0.66) on a factual correction the Skeptic flagged as thin-evidence: the proposal assumed a ~6.8% starting point, but live data shows Freddie Mac at 6.52% and MBA at 6.60% — and the FRED series is drifting DOWN week-over-week (6.57→6.52). A move above 7% therefore needs ~45-50bp of sustained increase in two months, which mortgage rates rarely do absent a clear shock; the 2s10s curve is calm at +0.39. The bond sell-off narrative exists but is not yet showing up in the rate path. Economics is my weak sector with an underprediction bias, so I resist going too low and set 0.33 rather than ~0.25 — but the hard current level dominates the sector-compression instinct here. This is a 'rates stay below 7%' forecast more than a sell-off bet.