Today's outlook is dominated by structural continuity rather than rupture: Ukraine's leadership will likely keep deferring the politically explosive 18-year-old draft, Kevin Warsh moves toward Fed Chair confirmation after a smooth Senate hearing, and Brent crude is unlikely to sustain a $110+ Q3 average despite ongoing Middle East strain — even as IAEA warnings, Pakistani heat-driven restrictions, and Russian ASAT pressure underscore the slow grind of compounding regional crises.

Verified via fact-check: confirmation hearing took place April 21 with positive coverage from CNBC and PBS. Warsh handled financial-disclosure and central-bank-independence questions credibly. Polymarket 82% with $-prices suggests strong market belief. Base rate for Fed Chair confirmation after a smooth hearing under same-party majority is ~85-90%. Trump's BVI=8 (high volatility, escalate-deal-claim-victory cycle) introduces a small risk of last-minute reversal — Trump has contradicted his own nominees before — but he has publicly committed to Warsh and pulling now would damage his image. My economics track record shows +36pp overpredict bias, so I compress from a naive 0.85 toward 0.76. This is above the dead zone and reflects both the strong market signal and Trump volatility risk.