Tech-cold-war acceleration dominates today's outlook as DeepSeek V4 on Huawei Ascend triggers a Chinese cloud-stack consolidation likely to provoke fresh US export controls, while Brent crude's 11.7% plunge to $104 confirms Middle East de-escalation is overriding the recent Hormuz oil shock. Russia-Ukraine deep-strike campaign and Russian wartime repression continue to grind forward as structural certainties.

Fact-check returns near-real-time confirmation: ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are already 'rushing to secure orders' for Huawei Ascend 950 chips after DeepSeek V4 was optimized for domestic silicon. This moves the question from 'if' to 'when announcements go public.' Technology is my strongest sector (Brier 0.063) and I have an under-prediction bias here (-23pp), so I bump UP from analyst 0.75 rather than compressing. The infrastructure piece (Ascend cluster availability) is no longer a blocker — Huawei chip sales are surging precisely because cloud demand has crystallized. Within the AI industry chain (development stage), 'Unchecked Acceleration' interpretation (35%) and the structural pressure from US export controls both support rapid productization. The main downside risk is that 'deployment' could happen privately/internally before any public-facing API announcement, but with three hyperscalers competing the probability of at least one public launch in 90 days is high.