Ukraine's escalating long-range drone campaign dominates the outlook, with another deep strike on Moscow (and a likely Kremlin security clampdown plus emergency fuel controls) judged highly probable within 30 days, while cross-strait conflict stays firmly off the table for the year. Climate and tech round out the day: Arctic sea ice will breach 10 million km² within weeks, and a fresh tightening of US-Dutch ASML controls on China looms.

Technology is my strongest sector (Brier 0.034) and the technologist, despite a nominal weight of 0.15, has an excellent Brier of 0.03. The council consensus (0.75/0.81) and the well-documented 2022-2025 ratcheting pattern both support escalation: once US officials publicly voice concern that China obtained a top ASML tool, the policy typically shifts from debate to licensing/servicing enforcement, and lithography is the chokepoint where small rule changes have outsized leverage. The Skeptic fairly noted (0.72) that the evidence is still mainly one reported concern plus historical pattern, not a visible draft rule. The analogy DB returned no direct export-control precedent, so I weight the structural pattern over a specific analogy. My tech forecasts run UNDER by ~17pp, which would argue higher, but I defer to the Skeptic's evidence caution and hold at 0.70 — the 120-day window is generous for at least one enforcement/servicing step.