Russia-Ukraine attritional warfare dominates today's outlook — a permanent ceasefire remains unlikely within a year as confirmed drone strikes on Russian chemical plants underscore the war's mounting environmental toll. Hungary's post-Orbán transition tests whether EU reintegration hopes can overcome deep Russian energy dependency, while a December 2025 Sandworm attack on Poland's grid elevates the year-ahead cyber threat to European critical infrastructure.

The technologist set P=0.66 and the Skeptic agreed (risk_score 74). I move to 0.72 based on strong convergent evidence from fact-checking. Meta's product trajectory is clearly heading toward agentic AI: (1) 'Muse Spark, Multi-Agent Mode & Personal Superintelligence' are listed as major 2026 AI launches; (2) Meta is building an AI version of Mark Zuckerberg so staff can 'talk to the boss' — precisely an AI avatar/agent product; (3) Meta debuted a new major AI model on April 8, establishing an active product cycle. The 120-day window is generous enough to encompass Meta's typical product announcement cadence. The AI industry chain is in DEVELOPMENT stage with 195 signals over 27 days, and the dominant interpretation (45% 'Safety Backlash Escalates') doesn't directly impede Meta's product launches. My technology sector Brier is 0.092 (strong, albeit n=1), and I slightly underpredicted in this sector. The Bayesian Inference pillar supports this: Meta's rapid model releases in Q1 2026 establish a strong prior for continued product momentum. The main risk is that Meta demos a chatbot upgrade rather than a full meeting agent — but the 'AI Zuckerberg' product specifically fits the meeting/avatar criteria. Deviation from analyst is only +0.06, well within normal calibration range.