Война США и Ирана порождает каскад глобальных кризисов: блокада Ормуза удерживает нефть выше $112 с перспективой $120, повреждение более 40 энергообъектов грозит масштабным загрязнением Персидского залива, иранские киберугрозы нацелены на критическую инфраструктуру, а эскалация украинских ударов БПЛА вынуждает Россию вводить чрезвычайные меры под Петербургом.

I assess P=0.75, above the analyst's 0.62, because the baseline conditions have already made a pollution event nearly certain — the question is primarily about formal reporting. The IEA chain ('IEA reports over 40 Middle East energy sites damaged,' 6 clusters, development stage) provides the critical data point: 40+ energy sites are already damaged. During any military campaign of this intensity against hydrocarbon infrastructure in a maritime environment, oil spills are not a speculative risk — they are a near-certainty. The Gulf War of 1991 produced the largest oil spill in history; the current conflict involves more distributed damage across more sites. The FT chain ('FT warns of gas supply crisis due to Qatar LNG damage,' escalation stage) indicates damage has reached Qatar's LNG facilities, expanding the geographic scope of infrastructure hits. The semi-enclosed Persian Gulf environment means even minor leaks from damaged facilities accumulate rapidly. I push significantly above 0.62 because: (1) The sheer number of damaged sites (40+) makes it statistically near-certain some have released hydrocarbons; (2) Continued active strikes increase the probability daily; (3) Multiple international organizations (IEA, UNFPA, WHO) are monitoring and reporting. The main uncertainty is about formal reporting rather than occurrence — in wartime, environmental monitoring is degraded. The 30-day window provides sufficient time for at least one event to be formally documented by the IEA, UNEP, or national agencies.