A confirmed US-Iran peace deal opening the Strait of Hormuz sent oil down nearly 5%, but Israel's independent strikes on Lebanon keep the regional war's spoiler track alive even as the bilateral conflict winds down. In parallel, US export controls have already forced Anthropic to geofence its top AI models, while certificate revocations accelerate Russia's internet fragmentation.

I merged the technologist proposal (0.72-0.76) and the cybersecurity proposal (0.58) on this identical event; the technologist is more authoritative on infrastructure mechanics, and technology is my strongest sector (Brier 0.08). The causal chain is sound: certificate revocations create an immediate operational need for replacement trust chains, and Russia's multi-year digital-sovereignty agenda (its domestic CA already exists and is pre-deployed in Yandex Browser) makes state-directed migration the path of least resistance. This aligns with the 'Authoritarian Control Escalation' interpretation in the cybersecurity chain (russian internet isolation 90%, state-sanctioned DNS alternatives 85%). The Skeptic approved (83) but flagged that exact-event confirmation of the GlobalSign revocation is moderate rather than strong — I weight this and hold at the technologist's 0.72 rather than raising. Browser-trust lock-in (Network Theory) supports the lock-in dynamic. Note: cybersecurity is my FAILING sector (over by 51pp), which is another reason I anchor to the technology framing and the lower-end probability rather than over-committing.