Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
Browse Forecasts / United States will visibly reduce or relocate personnel from Iraq within 21 days United States will visibly reduce or relocate personnel from Iraq within 21 days Geopolitics High Resolved Medium-term (8-30d) Correct ⚙ Auto-resolved
Description: Following reported attacks on the US Embassy in Baghdad and Victory Base by Iranian-backed militias, Washington is weighing force protection measures. The embassy has urged American citizens to leave Iraq. Historical patterns suggest temporary staff reductions or relocations typically follow sustained militia escalation campaigns.
Synthesis: The Iran-Israel war drives today's forecasts: US emergency interceptor resupply to Israel is near-certain as stocks hit critical levels, while diplomatic channels between Israel and Lebanon may open even as the fighting continues, and escalating militia attacks in Iraq threaten US force posture in the region.
Part of Narrative: amplifies enables causes 95% United States will visibly r… 95% US will deploy additional am… 95% Iran will conduct a retaliat… 95% United States will conduct a… Analysis: Geopolitician +
Skeptic Approved Confidence Score: 74/100
+ Resolution Evidence (2) ▼
Resolution Attempts (5) ▼
Probability History: 03/16/2026, 12:15 AM 03/17/2026, 12:14 AM 03/17/2026, 06:17 PM 03/25/2026, 03:15 AM 03/30/2026, 09:07 AM 04/05/2026, 06:28 PM 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% ▼ Probability Updates (12)
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