The US-Iran war's cascading effects dominate today's outlook: Hormuz Strait disruption is forcing European naval deployments and delaying Fed rate cuts, while Russia's Donbas ultimatum faces certain Ukrainian defiance — pushing Europe toward accelerated military autonomy across both theaters simultaneously.

This forecast carries multi-analyst consensus (DeepSeek 0.80, GPT 0.77, Claude 0.75), which I weight heavily as cross-model validation. The Skeptic lowered to 0.69, primarily on base-rate grounds: publicly visible destructive campaigns are less frequent than generic intrusions in any given 45-day window. I find this critique valid but only partially applicable — the current period is not a normal 45-day window. The conflict is at a peak escalation phase: Russia claims Luhansk control, demands immediate concessions, has conducted massive drone campaigns (147 drones intercepted in one night), and Ukraine is conducting deep strikes into Russia. The 'Russian region uncovers major Ukrainian communication node' chain (22 clusters, escalation) shows Russia is actively mapping Ukrainian communications infrastructure, which is a precursor to targeting. The 'Credential theft surges in late 2025' chain confirms the cyber threat environment is already elevated. I anchor closer to the Skeptic's adjusted probability than the analyst consensus because I take seriously the distinction between 'destructive campaign with public attribution' (which requires significant investment and is less common) versus general cyber harassment (constant). Ukrainian hardening since 2022 has improved resilience, but logistics and telecom remain more vulnerable than hardened grid infrastructure. I set P=0.70 as a compromise: higher than the Skeptic's 0.69 given the exceptional escalation context, but well below the analyst average of 0.77 given legitimate base-rate concerns.