As the 2026 Iran war moves into aftermath and oil retreats to $76, attention shifts from energy shocks to structural pressures: an entrenched no-ceasefire Russia-Ukraine war, the EU's landmark DSA enforcement forcing Meta to redesign its platforms, tightening Russian digital repression, and a compounding Venezuelan earthquake displacement crisis.

This is a 'non-event' forecast, and the base rate strongly favors it: sustained nationwide protest waves are rare and require coordination infrastructure that isolated grievances rarely generate in 45 days. The Trump-domestic chain sits in AFTERMATH with 'Authoritarian Consolidation' dominant — consistent with grievance accumulation but not with spontaneous mass mobilization. The Skeptic passed at 0.72. Social is a sector where I overestimate event likelihood, which here means I should not overstate the protest probability — reinforcing this 'no sustained wave' call. I trim marginally to 0.70 to leave room for a flashpoint (e.g., the ICE killing) sparking a short-lived surge that could be argued as a 'wave.' The sociologist's coordination-failure logic is sound and aligns with my calibration.