Second-order shocks from the Iran war dominate today's outlook — Ukraine extends its deep-strike cadence against southern Russian drone plants, the EU rehearses defense without Washington, Iran's named threat raises real postponement risk for the UAE's $30B Stargate AI complex, and energy-shock-driven load-shedding and displacement stress Pakistan and Lebanon — while a leaked NSA/Anthropic deployment signals a cascade of classified AI disclosures ahead.

Skeptic correctly flagged evidence-to-outcome slippage: internal adoption does not guarantee PUBLIC linkage within 120 days. However, once one agency's shadow use has been outed by Axios/Reuters with detail, the disclosure cascade becomes more likely: congressional attention triggers hearings/IG reports; competitors leak to assert parity; vendors make partial disclosures to claim government validation. The AI chain is at ESCALATION with density matrix showing 'Geopolitical AI Race' (30%) as top interpretation, outcomes including military AI integration at 80%. Technologist weight is default (no track record), so I anchor on the confirmed facts plus pattern of disclosure cascades. 120 days is a reasonable window. I modestly uprate analyst 0.62 to 0.68 given the Reuters-confirmed catalyst now exists.