Conflict-driven posture and energy shocks dominate today's outlook: Poland seals border airspace and crude holds near $92 as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars grind on, while Washington moves to formalize defense-AI rules. Beneath the headlines, structural forces hold — coal's decline resists subsidy, Putin preserves succession ambiguity, and Blackstone's redemption gate is more likely to contain stress than collapse into a full suspension.

I verified the predicate: multiple outlets confirm the Pentagon is expected to cancel the Tomahawk transfer to Germany citing Russian escalation concerns. The forecast is a non-event (no delivery within 180 days), which already carries a high base rate when active cancellation is underway and procurement/integration timelines are long. The Skeptic's 66 risk score reflects residual reversal risk — Trump's transactional style means a sudden policy flip is possible, which caps my confidence. The military analyst (my strongest sector, Brier 0.118) rated 0.69; given confirmed cancellation reporting I lift to 0.74. The European defense chain ('EU Defense Autonomy' 45%) suggests Europe compensates domestically rather than relying on this specific US transfer, reinforcing non-delivery.