Russia-Ukraine deep-strike warfare dominates the near-term outlook with Moscow airports already shutting and Russian Black Sea oil infrastructure under sustained pressure, while Israel's southern Lebanon footprint and US-Iran impasse keep the Middle East unsettled — and the FCC's April 30 vote to ban China-based test labs marks a fresh acceleration of US-China tech decoupling.

Multi-pillar convergence is exceptional: Polymarket 97% with 2.3x conviction (real money + holding), council range 0.78-0.92, recent fact-check confirms ongoing IDF airstrikes and evacuation warnings as of past 14 days. Historical base rate: clean military withdrawals from active contact zones without ceasefire-monitoring frameworks occur in <5% of modern cases. Skeptic accepted at 0.82. My military weak-sector compression suggests pulling down ~10pp from intuitive 0.94, landing me at 0.85. The 12% residual covers possible US-pressured 'paper withdrawal' framings that could politically redefine the term, which is the main uncertainty (correctly flagged by DeepSeek). Middle East regional war chain is in AFTERMATH stage with low purity (0.38), but the dominant 'Domestic Political Maneuvering' interpretation does not require Israeli withdrawal.