Infrastructure under fire dominates today's outlook: Zaporizhzhia's 14th power loss raises nuclear-safety anxiety, Sandworm cyber attribution against Ukrainian grid/rail is highly likely within 90 days, and a discovered Chinese seabed sensor pushes Indonesia toward a formal subsea security review. Meanwhile, despite an active $20B US-Iran cash-for-uranium proposal, a formal 60-day agreement remains improbable — and Iran is even less likely to close Hormuz while negotiating.

This is a base-rate forecast with extraordinarily strong historical support. Since 2012 and especially since 2022, Russia has enacted at least one new restrictive law affecting civil society, foreign agents, or surveillance in essentially every 12-month window — the Duma passes dozens of such amendments annually. The 'Russia-Ukraine War and Russia-West Confrontation' chain is in ESCALATION stage with 1922 clusters over 31 days, and the dominant interpretation ('Russian Domestic Control and Narrative Management', 30% weight) explicitly predicts expanded censorship (80%) and deepened repression (85%). Political analyst has NO DATA weight, but the base rate alone supports 0.80+. I raise above the 0.66 proposal because at a 365-day horizon, continuation of an established pattern is near-certain. Sociologist weight 0.18 offers partial support.