Middle East post-conflict dynamics dominate today's forecast: Hormuz commercial shipping is likely to normalize under coalition escort within 45 days even as Israeli street protests cross 10,000 participants and Iranian antiwar mobilization remains suppressed by regime coercion. Strategic realignment continues with the newly-signed Pax Silica U.S.-Philippines semiconductor zone and expected NATO brigade reinforcements in Eastern Europe.

Fact-check confirms the Pax Silica coalition agreement was signed April 16 with explicit 4,000-acre Luzon designation (The Tribune, Philippine Star, U.S. State Department). Base rate for politically flagship strategic-infrastructure projects to reach 'meaningful construction' within 365 days of signing is moderately high when (a) site is pre-designated, (b) both governments have strong political incentive for visible progress, and (c) geopolitical urgency exists (China rivalry). Risks: Philippine domestic political friction, land acquisition disputes, and history of U.S.-PH bases projects slipping. Geopolitician agent weight 0.18 (low), so I don't lean heavily on the 0.68 starting probability. Analogies with EDCA site build-outs suggest symbolic ground-breaking typically occurs within 12-18 months. I push slightly above analyst's 0.68 to 0.72 because the headline-horizon metric ('meaningful construction OR operation') is forgiving and political optics will drive early activity.