The Ukraine war's escalation phase dominates today's outlook — Kyiv's record drone strike on Moscow virtually guarantees both a Russian retaliatory surge against Kyiv and a wave of FSB collaboration arrests — while the Iran-war aftermath continues to drag in the Gulf, with a confirmed drone strike near the UAE's Barakah nuclear plant set to trigger U.S. naval reinforcement, expanded air-defense deployments, and a predictable pro-Iran disinformation campaign.

Cyber council was contested (DeepSeek 0.35, GPT 0.74, Claude 0.78). Sandworm's base rate for OT operations in Ukraine during escalation periods is strong (2015, 2016, 2022 Industroyer2). However, the resolution criterion requires PUBLIC ATTRIBUTION within 45 days, not merely an intrusion attempt — that compresses probability because public CERT-UA attribution typically lags detection by weeks. My cybersecurity Brier is small-sample but shows +67pp overprediction bias, so I compress aggressively toward 50%. I also widen for the Global Cybersecurity chain's low purity (0.27) — multiple competing interpretations including non-attribution outcomes. Skeptic adjusted to 0.68; I land at 0.62 — above dead zone but discounting the public-attribution timing constraint.