An actively escalating US-Iran war dominates today's outlook — a third round of strikes and Hormuz closure rhetoric are driving carrier de-risking and Gulf civil-defense measures, though Brent near $79 undercuts forecasts of a sustained $95 spike. In parallel, Zelensky's confirmed wartime cabinet reshuffle and Russia's intensifying drone-and-ballistic campaign against Kyiv underscore a deepening, industrializing war of attrition in Ukraine.

This forecast is already resolving in real time: my fact-check confirms Svyrydenko formally announced her resignation on Sunday July 13, with Al Jazeera and the LA Times reporting a broad government reshuffle (not a single swap). The Skeptic scored this 86 and left the probability at 0.85, but that was before the confirmation event landed. With the PM departure now public and the reshuffle framed as a multi-post reset, the only residual uncertainty is whether at least two ADDITIONAL senior posts turn over within 30 days — highly likely given the announced scope and Ukraine's repeated 2022-2024 pattern of using elite rotation for anti-corruption signaling and command consolidation (Psychohistory/historical-parallels pillar). Geopolitics is a sector where I historically under-predict, which further supports moving above the analyst number. I set 0.92, reserving downside only for parliamentary timing slippage on the secondary appointments.