Iran-centered pressure dominates today's outlook — sustained blockade fuels likely localized unrest inside Iran while foreclosing any durable Iran-Israel peace deal and entrenching hardliner control through 2026. Meanwhile, Russia advances both its crypto-payment ban and its wartime repression architecture, with atomized dissent replacing any coordinated protest wave.

Two independent analysts (military, weight 0.47 — the highest in military sector; and geopolitician_hawk) converge on this forecast — multi-analyst support strengthens it. Fact-check confirms active pattern: multiple recent US Navy seizures near Chinese warships, plus Iranian retaliatory seizures. Polymarket at ~100% with 0.5x conviction signals speculative churn — I discount the Polymarket price to ~0.75 given low conviction. My military-sector track record shows +18pp overestimation bias (Brier 0.25, n=19), so I apply a ~10pp downward correction: from intuitive 0.78 to 0.68. Brent oil has dropped 5.5% to $93, suggesting modest de-escalation in acute Hormuz disruption — which slightly reduces but does not eliminate enforcement probability. The 30-day window combined with documented ongoing operations makes at least one more seizure probable but not certain.