Twin authoritarian crackdowns dominate today's outlook — Erdoğan's raid on Turkey's main opposition headquarters is likely to be followed by further CHP detentions within 30 days, while Putin's renewed prestige-missile strikes on Kyiv signal sustained escalation. Structural forecasts on EU cloud sovereignty, the Ebola response, and the wind+solar vs. gas crossover round out a digest weighted toward institutional resilience tests.

I merge the 180-day binding-rules proposal (P=0.72) with the 365-day certification proposal (P=0.58). The 180-day window is too aggressive given EU legislative cadence — the Skeptic flagged that the Kyiv-strike causal link is overstated and the cloud-sovereignty track predates the latest attack. The 365-day window is far more plausible because (a) EUCS scheme is already in late-stage drafting, (b) the Data Act and NIS2 give the legal scaffolding, (c) Mario Draghi's competitiveness report and von der Leyen's second-term Digital Strategy explicitly include sovereignty. The Skeptic accepted both directional logics but pushed back on 180-day timing. My technology Brier (0.10) is strong, so I commit at 0.66 — above the Skeptic's 0.58 because the political momentum has accelerated since both proposals were drafted, but below 0.72 because EU institutional processes regularly slip by 6-12 months. Risk: French-German disagreement on 'sovereignty-strict' vs. 'sovereignty-flexible' could stall the binding language.