Reciprocal deep strikes dominate the Russia-Ukraine war as Kyiv's drones crush Russian refining to a 21-year low while Moscow readies another mass aerial barrage; meanwhile the Iran war's aftermath drives twin proliferation pressures — an Iranian nuclear hedge and a US missile-defense procurement surge — and Europe edges further toward conscription.

This is a high-base-rate procurement forecast: interceptor depletion after a real shooting war reliably triggers multi-year production ramps, and initial contracts are already signed — so 'at least one additional major award in 12 months' is close to a structural certainty. The military analyst is my most-tested source (Brier 0.19, n=34) and this sits squarely in its core competency (defense budgets, weapons systems). It also cross-validates the Iran nuclear forecast: the same stretched-defenses signal drives both. The Skeptic's 0.74 is appropriately cautious about specific contract timing, but 12 months is a generous window. I lift to 0.80. Risk of being wrong: a budget/CR impasse could delay signed awards, or restocking could be handled via existing multi-year contracts without a new headline award.