Russia dominates the outlook: renewed massed strikes on Kyiv are near-certain within two weeks even as a deepening fuel crisis forces emergency Indian gasoline imports and tighter domestic censorship — yet state repression keeps mass protest unlikely. Elsewhere, NVIDIA holds its market-cap crown, Washington moves toward frontier-AI evaluation standards, and Venezuela's earthquake threatens to displace over 100,000.

This is a deliberately low-probability forecast that captures regime resilience. State repression, absence of independent coordinating structures (unions, NGOs), Telegram surveillance, and an aging/rural-skewed demographic all raise mobilization costs — the classic collective-action suppression that has held through prior 2023-2024 crises. The Skeptic endorsed the analyst's use of this base rate (0.30). My social sector over-prediction bias (+7pp) argues for trimming slightly, so I set 0.28 for the 10-region/180-day threshold. The Eurasia chain has high meta-uncertainty (purity 0.27) with a 'Regional Protest Wave' interpretation present but not dominant, so I acknowledge that localized flare-ups are plausible even if systemic mobilization is not. Framing the forecast as non-escalation is the analytically honest read.