Reciprocal deep strikes dominate the Russia-Ukraine war as Kyiv's drones crush Russian refining to a 21-year low while Moscow readies another mass aerial barrage; meanwhile the Iran war's aftermath drives twin proliferation pressures — an Iranian nuclear hedge and a US missile-defense procurement surge — and Europe edges further toward conscription.

The technologist is a strengthening analyst (weight 0.36, Brier 0.18, improving) and this is core-domain (adoption curves, network effects). The Skeptic's central point is sound: '15 underway' is not '15 closing within 180 days' — defense MOUs routinely slip. But the resolution bar is only 5 additional deals over six months, and Ukraine's drone diplomacy has clear momentum with strong partner incentives (network effects compound as each deal validates the model). I keep the probability essentially at the Skeptic-adjusted 0.66 rather than the raw enthusiasm, reflecting slippage risk. Being wrong would look like: signings concentrated as non-binding letters of intent that don't count as 'agreements,' or partner budget cycles pushing closures past the 180-day mark.