An active US-Iran shooting war dominates the outlook: with US personnel killed in Jordan and CENTCOM striking Iranian targets nightly, further US strikes, a Gulf missile-defense surge, and continued maritime incidents near Hormuz are all likely within weeks — though Trump's history of abrupt escalate-then-deal reversals caps the certainty. Secondary threads span the AI industrial buildout (Alibaba's next Qwen, Oracle's Wisconsin power bottleneck), fraying EU sanctions unity, and tightening Russian financial and diaspora-repression measures.

The geopolitician set 0.75; their strong track record with a -0.16 underprediction bias suggests that number is if anything conservative. However, this forecast is harder than 'US will strike again' because it requires Iran to not just attack but to successfully inflict confirmed casualties — precisely the outcome the parallel missile-defense surge (0.80 above) is designed to prevent. That counter-vailing dynamic, plus my own military-sector over-prediction bias (+13pp), pulls me down from the analyst level. I set 0.70: an active retaliation cycle in a 0.88-purity escalation environment makes further Iranian strikes near-certain, but the casualty-confirmation threshold and improving base defenses inject real uncertainty. Pillars: game_theory (cost-imposition), psychohistory.