Bolivia's anti-crisis transport blockades will resume or widen within 21 days
Dispersal of protesters is unlikely to remove the economic-stress and emergency-politics drivers behind the unrest. Road blockades — the opposition's cheapest, most reproducible leverage — are likely to reappear or spread across departments within three weeks.
Escalation management dominates today's outlook: Russia is overwhelmingly likely to keep its war below the NATO threshold even as Ukrainian strikes keep Crimea's energy grid burning, while internal repression intensifies in both Moscow and Tehran. On the structural front, Arctic ice slips past another depressed seasonal marker and US-China decoupling pushes deeper into robotics and AI-enabled cyber threats.
The council was contested (DeepSeek 0.25 vs GPT 0.72, Claude 0.75); DeepSeek's dissent was actually about a DIFFERENT, harder question (a synchronized national general strike), while the majority addressed the narrower blockade-resumption mechanism. On the actual resolution question, Claude's Bolivia base rate is compelling: blockade resumption after dispersal-without-concessions ran ~70% within 2-4 weeks in 2000, 2003, 2005, and 2019. The Skeptic approved at 0.66. Bolivia's decentralized protest infrastructure (peasant federations, transport unions, local committees) gives blockades a low coordination threshold, and state-of-emergency governance without material concessions is the classic protest-recycling condition. The sociologist holds the best social-sector weight (0.30). My own social calibration is weak (~21pp overprediction), so I trim from the council majority's 0.72-0.75 to 0.66 — this compression both corrects my bias and clears the dead zone, while the strong historical base rate justifies staying above 50%. Collective Action, Social Networks, and Institutional Trust pillars all support recurrence.