A fragile 15-day US-Iran ceasefire dominates today's outlook: Pakistan-mediated talks in Islamabad are imminent as Brent crude plunges 13% to $94.60, but CENTCOM maintains combat-ready posture in the Gulf while Iran channels wartime trauma into domestic mobilization and Turkey tightens security after an attack on Istanbul's Israeli consulate.

The evidence base is strong and already partially realized: Iranian officials have urged young people to form human chains at power plants (confirmed), Al Jazeera footage shows Sharif University damaged by strikes, and Trump's maximalist rhetoric about destroying Iranian civilization provides exactly the external threat narrative that triggers rally-around-the-flag effects. The sociologist's council achieved consensus (DeepSeek 0.76, GPT 0.78, Claude 0.79) — unusual convergence across three models. Collective action theory predicts this clearly: external attacks make dissent riskier while participation in state-approved solidarity becomes socially rewarded. The Skeptic adjusted to 0.71, noting that 'mass solidarity mobilization' is less certain than campus crackdowns — a fair point. The AND condition (rallies AND university controls) slightly reduces probability versus either alone. However, both are already underway: human chains are forming, and universities are damaged sites requiring state control. Historical parallel: Iran's response to Iraqi attacks during 1980-88 war produced exactly this pattern — funeral processions, volunteer mobilization, and increased domestic surveillance simultaneously. I set 0.76, slightly above the Skeptic's 0.71, because the ground truth already shows both dynamics in motion. Psychohistory and Collective Action pillars both strongly confirm.