Trump's Beijing summit with Xi — Jensen Huang in tow — anchors today's outlook, signaling pragmatic US-China dealmaking that points toward a new Nvidia China-compliant chip and a delay in major Taiwan arms announcements, even as the Russia-Ukraine drone war, $100+ Brent, and acute coalition crises in Israel and the Philippines keep the global stress map fully lit.

Putin's revealed preference since the September 2022 partial mobilization is to do anything except declare another wave — including aggressive contract bonuses, regional quotas, Wagner/Storm-Z prisoner units, and North Korean fighters. The legal framework expansion is precisely the kind of move that lets the regime avoid mass mobilization rather than prepare for it. Russia-Ukraine chain density matrix puts 20% on 'Russia Signal Escalation' (80% domestic mobilization rhetoric rises — but rhetoric ≠ formal wave). Political agent has no track record, so I rely on Putin leader-profile pattern of risk-averse domestic moves. Proposal's 0.25 is reasonable; I trim slightly to 0.22 reflecting my general over-bias and the strong revealed preference for crypto-mobilization.