An actively escalating US-Iran war dominates today's outlook — a third round of strikes and Hormuz closure rhetoric are driving carrier de-risking and Gulf civil-defense measures, though Brent near $79 undercuts forecasts of a sustained $95 spike. In parallel, Zelensky's confirmed wartime cabinet reshuffle and Russia's intensifying drone-and-ballistic campaign against Kyiv underscore a deepening, industrializing war of attrition in Ukraine.

The fact-checked escalation (third round of strikes, ship attacked near Hormuz, direct hits on Kuwaiti oil infrastructure, US soldier deaths in Kuwait) creates strong conditions for at least one Gulf state to activate civil-defense measures — a deliberately low bar (one state, any broad measure). The Skeptic scored 68 and left 0.62. Social is my worst-behaved forecastable sector (Brier 0.31, over by ~15pp), so I resist the temptation to go higher and give extra weight to the Skeptic's number; I set 0.66, escaping the dead zone on the strength of direct, confirmed spillover to Kuwait rather than on intuition. The competing 'political opportunism' vs. 'genuine' interpretations do not change the operational likelihood of precautionary civil-defense orders during active strikes.