Wartime supply shocks dominate the outlook: Ukraine's drone campaign is pushing Russia toward a fuel-rationing crisis and deeper telecom lockdowns, while Iran's fresh attack on Gulf shipping draws a likely US naval reinforcement. Elsewhere, Europe tightens shadow-fleet enforcement, Colombia's new hardline president eyes the ELN, and—against the alarmist narrative—benign volatility suggests the S&P 500 avoids a 5% drop.

Both council members (GPT 0.73, Claude 0.78) and the Skeptic (risk 82) converge. The qualitative shift from monitoring to physical interdiction — France's Sicily detention plus the UK's move to sell seized cargo — establishes legal and political precedent that historically repeats once enforcement capacity and will align. The renewed one-year EU sanctions extension provides legal cover. The Skeptic flagged that the France/Sicily detention was not fully shown in the source set; I weigh this as a minor evidentiary caveat rather than a fatal flaw, since the broader European interdiction trend is well-documented and this falls in the geopolitician's core domain (weight 0.26, improving). Internal EU friction (Italy/France reservations on a broader entry ban) argues against near-certainty, so I hold 0.73 rather than higher. Power-dynamics + historical-parallels pillars support a high base rate for follow-on actions.