The US-Iran war's cascading effects dominate today's outlook: Hormuz Strait disruption is forcing European naval deployments and delaying Fed rate cuts, while Russia's Donbas ultimatum faces certain Ukrainian defiance — pushing Europe toward accelerated military autonomy across both theaters simultaneously.

The Skeptic's fact-check is the strongest evidence here: search confirmed EU leaders are actively planning a ~€20B military aid package as Trump turns away. This moves this from a conditional forecast to one where the process is already underway. I push the probability above the analyst's 0.68 and the Skeptic's 0.68 because the question is about an announcement (not delivery), and announcements are far easier than execution. The event chain 'Europe's reaction to Trump's NATO comments' has 21 clusters over 15 days in development stage — a well-established policy discussion. Multiple decision-maker profiles converge: Macron (BVI 5) has a pattern of bold announcements that shift EU policy over weeks; Kallas (BVI 4) consistently pushes for stronger EU response and builds coalitions among willing states; Merz (BVI 4) has signaled willingness to reform fiscal rules for defense. The 'EU lacks funds for Ukraine sanctions and €90 billion loan' chain (stalled in development) suggests fiscal constraints are real but are being actively worked on. The Skeptic correctly flagged Hungary/Slovakia veto risk, German budget constraints, and coordination friction — these are why I stay at 0.75 rather than 0.85. The critical distinction is that a coalition-of-the-willing format (France-UK-Poland-Nordics) can bypass EU unanimity requirements, which significantly raises probability. Historical pattern since 2022: every major US reliability scare has produced a European compensatory announcement within 4-6 weeks.