Despite Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and lingering Middle East risk, Brent is trading near $93 and falling. This resolves true (as a low-probability forecast for the >$110 threshold) — i.e., Brent is unlikely to average above $110/bbl over the next 30 days.
Synthesis:
Ukraine's deepening drone campaign against St. Petersburg's military-industrial complex anchors today's outlook — near-certain repeat strikes are pulling NATO toward a €60B+ summit aid package and pushing Russia toward fresh internet-control measures, even as falling Brent (~$93) deflates war-premium oil forecasts and Russian anti-war mobilization stays improbable.
Seldon's Analysis:
Hard data overrides the analyst proposal here. Live Yahoo Finance shows Brent at $93.09 (-2.0%) and WTI at $90.54 (-2.7%), both declining. For Brent to AVERAGE above $110 over 30 days would require a sustained ~18-20% spike with no reversion — a major fresh supply shock. The Middle East Regional War chain is in AFTERMATH (de-escalation), removing the strongest bullish catalyst the dual-persona economists relied on. The economist Bull+Bear merged at 0.75 (skeptic cut to 0.64), but both personas carry low reliability weights (0.21-0.24) and were anchored to a war-premium that has already deflated. Even accounting for my own tendency to under-predict in economics, the physical price level makes >$110 average a clear tail outcome. I therefore set the probability of the >$110 threshold at 0.17. Ukrainian strikes on Russian export capacity provide a floor but not a +20% surge.