Post-election repression looms in Russia while Seoul readies its first tech-espionage prosecutions — even as the market-hyped narrative of AI labs voluntarily 'slowing down' is unlikely to harden into binding rules within the year.

This falls in my strongest sector (geopolitics, Brier 0.107, slight under-prediction bias), so I weight my synthesis confidently and can nudge above the analyst/Skeptic 0.68. The base rate is the decisive evidence: every Russian electoral cycle since 2012 has been followed within 90 days by legal action against perceived political threats (2021 Duma → intensified Navalny-network suppression). Putin's behavioral profile reinforces this — regime survival is his top priority and his signature pattern is 'stabilize at new equilibrium, resist rollback,' with repression as the default post-mobilization tool. The Skeptic correctly flagged that peripheral details (drone strikes, fuel queues) are not the real driver and cautioned against overstatement, so I discount those elements and anchor purely on the repression-cycle base rate, which is very high. The 'State Pressure Campaign' interpretation dominates the relevant Eurasia domestic-security chain (55%, escalation stage), corroborating direction. Pillars: regime_dynamics, historical_cycles, mobilization_coercion. I set 0.75 rather than higher because 'first NEW action within exactly 90 days' carries some timing risk even when the direction is near-certain.