Ukraine's deepening long-range strike campaign dominates the outlook — another confirmed deep strike on Russia's rear is highly likely within 30 days, driving visible Russian air-defense hardening around Moscow and at Engels and squeezing civilian life in occupied Crimea. Secondary threads include probable fresh Chinese EV demand subsidies, a long-rumored but still-unlikely Tajik dynastic succession, and a sub-average but probably-not-record Arctic ice minimum.

I raise this above the economist's 0.58. Web verification confirms China already runs a 2026 EV tax break (halved, capped at ¥15,000) and an established consumer trade-in subsidy program — so the policy machinery for demand support is active, and the property-bust consumption weakness plus structural overcapacity give Beijing strong motive to extend or top it up in H2 2026. The resolution bar ('introduce subsidies or tax breaks') is broad and partly satisfied by existing programs being expanded. The economist's reliability weight is modest (0.19, degrading), but my own economics track record runs under-confident (under by 11pp), which justifies lifting toward 0.66. Risk to YES: the tax exemption is being deliberately phased down, so a clearly NEW measure (versus a continuation) is the binding uncertainty. Bayesian/Psychohistory pillars (policy-cycle base rates).