Conflict-driven posture and energy shocks dominate today's outlook: Poland seals border airspace and crude holds near $92 as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars grind on, while Washington moves to formalize defense-AI rules. Beneath the headlines, structural forces hold — coal's decline resists subsidy, Putin preserves succession ambiguity, and Blackstone's redemption gate is more likely to contain stress than collapse into a full suspension.

I merged the technologist's FP-9 test proposal (idx 5, P=0.69) with the military analyst's overlapping 'ballistic missile capable of reaching Moscow' proposal (idx 15, P=0.62) — they describe the same Fire Point program and should be one forecast to avoid duplication. The signal is direct (chief designer's stated timeline), but the Skeptic rightly flags that it largely traces to a single company/publicity source and that wartime prototype tests slip frequently. The Russia-Ukraine chain's 'Real War Escalation' interpretation (55%) supports continued capability development. I anchor on a 90-day demonstrable test (more achievable than a Moscow-capable proven missile) rather than the more ambitious 6-month framing, and discount modestly for single-source risk and program slippage: 0.66. The narrower, harder claim of an actual Moscow-range ballistic test is the lower-probability tail captured within this.