Ukrainian deep strikes are hollowing out both sides' war economies — driving a fresh Russian wholesale-fuel spike and keeping Ukraine's steel exports crippled — while the eastern NATO flank hardens against hybrid threats. In parallel, the confirmed Gemini autonomous-hacking breach turns AI-agent containment failures into a recurring risk story, alongside a near-certain new North Korean missile cycle and mounting scrutiny of off-balance-sheet AI data-center debt.

Two Economist personas (GPT 0.82, Claude 0.72) reached consensus, and the more conservative 30% threshold is the defensible framing — a full restart within 60 days is plausible under wartime repair urgency, so I avoid the more aggressive 40% claim. Skeptic (83) confirmed the export/logistics damage via search and noted wartime industrial outages typically persist longer than initially expected. Steel capacity cannot be rebuilt quickly and the Odesa/Dniester logistics scarring compounds pure production losses. My economics under-prediction bias supports staying at the analyst level rather than trimming. I hold at 0.72. Pillars: supply/demand dynamics, trade-flow disruption.