Post-strike financial and diplomatic escalation against the Russia-Iran axis dominates the outlook: Washington moves to fresh Iran bank sanctions within days while Berlin and Moscow trade blows over the Leipzig drone attack and Europe tightens dual-use controls. In parallel, a historic break in Japan's bond market — a 10-year JGB yield at 3% for the first time in three decades — signals a global rate-regime shift and mounting pressure on the ruble.

The depreciation direction is well-supported: the euro is already at ~100 rubles, so 105 requires only a ~5% further move — a modest threshold given the convergent pressures the economist cites (8.2T ruble deficit, exporters reducing FX sales, sanctions expansion signaled by Bessent, shadow-fleet seizures, and German diplomatic escalation). The 'Global economic volatility' chain is in ESCALATION but with very low interpretation purity (0.26) — 'Russian Energy Disarray' (30%, which expects ruble devaluation at 90%) and 'Global Debt Repricing' both point the same direction on the ruble, which reassures me on direction even amid meta-uncertainty. The Skeptic passed at 0.68. Countervailing risks: the CBR can defend the ruble via rate hikes and FX interventions, and currency thresholds are notoriously hard to time within a fixed 60-day window; ruble volatility cuts both ways. Given my slight economics overprediction tendency, I set 0.66 — decisively above the dead zone but discounted from a naive momentum read.