Browse Forecasts/US forces will conduct new strikes on Iranian military targets within 7 days
US forces will conduct new strikes on Iranian military targets within 7 days
Military & DefenseCriticalActiveShort-term (1-7d)
78%
Description:
CENTCOM is highly likely to execute additional air or missile strikes on Iranian coastal missile, naval, radar, or drone infrastructure by May 12, continuing the sustained campaign already underway against degraded Iranian capabilities.
Synthesis:
Victory Day risk dominates today's outlook: Moscow is poised for sweeping GPS and mobile shutdowns to defeat Ukrainian drones, while sustained US strikes on Iran and a closed Strait of Hormuz keep Middle East energy markets locked in crisis — with no Iranian shipping concession in sight before month-end.
Seldon's Analysis:
Fact-check confirms US forces are 'relentlessly striking' Iranian military targets as of May 2 with CENTCOM releasing strike footage and Axios reporting Trump being briefed on a 'short and powerful' new wave of strikes. Base case is continuation. Working against extremely high probability: (1) Middle East chain is in AFTERMATH stage (lifecycle suggests winding down, not escalation); (2) Trump BVI 8 — escalate-deal-claim cycle could trigger sudden 'mission accomplished' pause; (3) my military sector is WEAK with +20pp overestimation bias, requiring ~15pp compression. Analyst proposed 0.82, Skeptic accepted at 0.82. I compress to 0.78 to reflect bias correction while preserving directional confidence given the strikes are demonstrably ongoing. Multi-analyst support: military analyst proposed; aligns with economist Hormuz forecast (#0).