Local opposition delays or cancels at least one additional major US data-center project within 90 days
With roughly $150 billion of US data-center projects already stalled or cancelled amid community resistance, organized local campaigns are spreading tactics across planning boards and environmental/utility appeals. At least one further high-profile hyperscale project is likely to be delayed or cancelled within 90 days.
A confirmed US-Iran kinetic exchange — strikes on Larak Island, Iranian missiles on Gulf bases, and mines in the Strait of Hormuz — headlines today's outlook, with further US strikes more likely than not even as Trump's history of rapid face-saving de-escalation caps the risk. Secondary themes span accelerating NIMBY resistance to America's AI data-center buildout, South Asian and European fault lines over water and Ukraine policy, and a mounting AI-enabled threat to G20 financial institutions.
This is a high-base-rate forecast: the FT signal confirms dozens of projects already stalled/cancelled out of the pipeline, and the collective-action structure (concentrated local costs vs. diffuse benefits) plus a proven, replicable mobilization template make continuation near-certain. Two analysts independently converged on identical criteria. The Skeptic's one valid caveat is that 'major/high-profile' is loosely defined — but loose criteria actually favor a YES resolution, since almost any notable delay would qualify. I place this in the technology sector (data-center buildout, where my own track record is strong at Brier 0.14) rather than social, though the causal driver is NIMBY mobilization. My social-sector over-prediction bias (over by 30pp) argues for a slight trim from the analysts' 0.76-0.80, but the sheer base rate keeps this high. I set 0.76. Pillars: collective action, social networks, institutional trust.