Russia dominates today's outlook — an entrenched no-ceasefire war with continued Ukrainian deep strikes, a security-framed crackdown around the GAS Vybory election leak, and further foreign-asset seizures — while SpaceX's imminent Starship orbital attempt and converging EU and Chinese moves to regulate AI and minors' social media signal an accelerating global tech-governance buildout.

My fact-check confirms Flight 14 is already scheduled for a launch window this week (Sept 18-22, 2026), targeting the first full orbital trajectory with ~20 Starlink V3 satellites. Technologist proposed 0.68; Skeptic passed at 0.68 (risk 74) — but this figure conflates 'attempt' with 'success.' The forecast resolves on an ATTEMPT within 45 days, and with a launch imminent, even a scrub-and-retry cycle almost certainly produces an attempt inside the window. Technology is the sector where I most under-predict (~19pp), and the evidence is near-confirmatory, so I raise this substantially to 0.90. The residual 10% covers major hardware anomalies or regulatory (FAA) holds that could push a genuine attempt past early November.