Both sides in the Russia-Ukraine war are hitting each other's energy and export infrastructure: Russian strikes on Odesa's ports are near-certain to continue, and at least one Ukrainian-hit refinery is likely to still be offline next week. A comprehensive US-Iran peace deal stays unlikely despite talk of a new ceasefire, while Hurricane Polo is expected to cause flooding in Baja California Sur and EU capitals are likely to adopt winter energy-saving measures.

The claim only needs one of four refineries to still be impaired seven days after the strikes. The Novoshakhtinsk halt was officially confirmed on September 25 (ISW, Ukrainska Pravda). Repairing damaged primary distillation units usually takes two to six weeks, especially under Western sanctions on replacement equipment. Novoshakhtinsk was out for long periods after earlier strikes. Ukraine is also likely to strike again, which could extend outages. The main risk is how the claim resolves: Russia may not disclose partial restarts, so throughput data could be unclear. My record shows I underestimate economics forecasts by about 18pp. That, plus the four-refinery option and short repair window, pushes me to 0.83, above the analyst's 0.73.