The US-Iran war's second month dominates today's outlook: Washington is likely to avoid ground invasion while allies refuse to join offensive strikes, but Iran-aligned forces will almost certainly escalate maritime chokepoint attacks—reshaping global energy security and accelerating Europe's historic defense spending transformation.

The political analyst's framework—wartime fiscal pressure in a personalist regime driving elite-focused extraction—is historically well-grounded and currently supported by strong signals. Putin met with at least 10 billionaires at the RSPP meeting (event chain 48), and the Kremlin confirmed Putin backs business 'voluntary contributions' for state needs. The gasoline export ban from April 1 (event chain 147) demonstrates active wartime market management and willingness to impose economic controls. Russian State Duma reactions to mass small business closure forecasts (event chain 226, AFTERMATH) suggest economic stress is building. The base rate strongly supports this: Russia has used windfall taxes, forced 'voluntary' payments, and ad hoc levies multiple times since 2022, including the one-off windfall tax on major firms in 2023. The Skeptic's valid counterpoints include: (a) quiet bilateral pressure may substitute for public formalization; (b) sanctions-relief windfalls could reduce urgency; (c) increased domestic borrowing remains an alternative. I set 0.72, slightly above the Skeptic's 0.69, because the 120-day horizon is generous and Putin has already publicly signaled this direction. The question is not whether extraction will happen—it will—but whether it will be formalized enough to be publicly observable. Given Russian institutional patterns of making such payments visible for patriotic signaling purposes, I assess formalization as more likely than not.