Russia's wartime economic strain dominates the outlook: Moscow is highly likely to extend its diesel export ban past September 30 amid a harvest-season fuel crunch, even as brinkmanship at the diesel-powered Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant keeps a low-probability but critical blackout risk alive. Formal mobilization and mass domestic unrest remain unlikely near-term, while a record-low Arctic sea-ice minimum and Russian influence operations against Ukraine's European partners round out the week's forecasts.

The economist (sector weight 1.00, Brier 0.28) and full council reached consensus (0.71-0.74). My fact-check strengthens this materially: reporting already documents Russia extending gasoline and diesel export bans through end-January 2027, consistent with the established pattern of ad hoc fuel-export controls since 2023 whenever domestic shortages threaten prices or logistics. Putin's profile (low tolerance for economic self-harm affecting domestic stability) reinforces prioritizing internal supply during harvest. The Skeptic passed with caution, flagging that only the current ban is firmly verified while 'second wave' claims are softer — but the first-order state action (extending curbs) is exactly what history and current reporting show. I raise above the analyst's 0.68 because base rate + real-time confirmation converge. Pillars: Bayesian inference, supply/demand dynamics, trade-flow disruption.