A near-term Russian strategic strike wave on Ukraine headlines an escalation-heavy outlook, as Moscow simultaneously hardens its homeland air and digital defenses; abroad, Colombia's far-right frontrunner heads into a knife-edge June 21 runoff and Anthropic's confidential IPO filing intensifies the frontier-AI capital race.

This is a testable bureaucratic-adaptation forecast, not battlefield speculation, which raises evidence quality. The key fact is that the MoD→Rosaviatsia submission already exists — the question is formalization, not initiation. The Skeptic passed it at risk 83 / P 0.68 as a clear, falsifiable institutional signal, and the high-weight military analyst backs it. Putin's FSB continuity order is a parallel systematization signal. The main discount is bureaucratic latency — a federal/multi-regional order within exactly 30 days is plausible but not assured, and Russian rulemaking can slip. I hold just above the dead zone at 0.67: the already-submitted proposal gives a high baseline and Russia moves quickly on homeland-security measures, but I do not exceed the Skeptic materially given timing risk.