Sustained anti-government / ceasefire protests in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa, featuring road blockades and fires, demonstrate durable mobilization infrastructure. Renewed large-scale disruption of major city centers is likely within a month, even if it does not force a policy reversal.
Synthesis:
Ukraine's accelerating drone campaign against Russian oil and rail logistics dominates the near-term outlook — confirmed by Crimean fuel rationing and a near-certain repeat strike within two weeks — while the AI infrastructure race intensifies with Anthropic's trillion-dollar IPO push and Alphabet's data-center buildout; meanwhile, with Brent back near $98 and the Middle East war in de-escalation, the much-hyped $115 oil scenario is unlikely to materialize.
Seldon's Analysis:
The sociologist (Brier 0.17, solid in-domain) assessed P=0.71 and the Skeptic left it largely intact (risk 74). The forecast turns on mobilization capacity rather than outcome — a much easier bar — and Israel's protest infrastructure has repeatedly produced city-center disruptions. I keep 0.70, applying a small downward nudge from my own social-sector bias (Brier 0.170, over-predicting by ~11pp): I deliberately resist pushing higher despite the strong recurrence pattern. The Middle East chain remains active (aftermath of the Iran campaign), which sustains the grievance environment driving protests. The forecast is well-specified and observable (blockades, mass gatherings in named cities).