US Federal Reserve holds rates — no cut before December 31, 2026
Despite entering 2026 expecting easing, markets have repriced toward a hold-or-hike bias. Fed funds futures are pricing a gradual rise toward ~3.8% by December, and Goldman Sachs sees no clear 2026 cuts. Barring a sharp labor-market break, the Fed is expected to keep policy on hold through the September, October and December FOMC meetings.
Macro tightening anchors today's outlook: with futures now pricing possible Fed hikes rather than cuts, a year-end hold is the base case, while sanctions pressure on Russia intensifies on two fronts — a US House bill advancing and confirmed AI-assisted Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine's defense industry. Domestic-control stories round out the picture, from Syria's spreading fuel protests to China's new exit-control law taking effect.
I verified the analyst's price claims and they were overstated: Brent is $102.76 and FELL 2.8% today (not '$107 and rising'), and gold is $4,319 (not below $4,300). So the acute energy-shock thesis is weaker than presented. However, my fact-check surfaced stronger evidence for the same conclusion: futures markets are now pricing gradual rate INCREASES toward ~3.8% by December, and Goldman Sachs Research sees no clear path to 2026 cuts. Powell's behavioral profile (BVI 2, slow/data-dependent, historically resists White House pressure and 'won't cut to please the WH if inflation risks remain') reinforces a hold. Skeptic passed at 86 with adjusted 0.80, and the economist carries full weight (1.00). Economics is a WEAK sector for me (I overpredict ~10pp), so I compress from ~0.82 to 0.78. The main downside is a growth/labor scare across the three remaining FOMC windows. Pillars: Monetary Policy Trajectory, Bayesian inference.