Russia-Ukraine combat will breach any Victory Day truce theatrics while Moscow suppresses dissent at home; meanwhile, Polymarket and base rates jointly favor a Democratic House recapture in November, Iran-US tensions stay below the kinetic threshold despite the Hormuz blockade, and China's AI chip self-sufficiency push accelerates as DeepSeek V4 validates Huawei Ascend.

Council split GPT 0.71 / Claude 0.82, Skeptic at 0.69 with risk score 84. Pillars: force_balance + escalation_ladder + military_doctrine all converge. Base rate for short symbolic Russia-Ukraine ceasefires holding cleanly is essentially zero across 43 months of war — every prior Easter, Christmas, and grain-corridor pause was breached. Mismatch in proposals is itself signal: Putin proposing 3-day Victory Day truce, Zelensky countering with 30-day, no agreement reached. Moscow's mobile-internet restrictions ahead of holidays are homeland UAV defense, not stand-down. Ukraine has command friction (Budanov-Zelensky) reducing centralized truce discipline. Russia-Ukraine chain in ESCALATION stage with 2,583 clusters reinforces continuity. I compress slightly from analyst 0.69 toward 0.72 because the structural base rate is even stronger than analysts state — but applying my +23pp military over-bias correction, I land at 0.72. Density matrix purity 0.27 (low) keeps me from going higher despite strong directional signal.