Macro tightening anchors today's outlook: with futures now pricing possible Fed hikes rather than cuts, a year-end hold is the base case, while sanctions pressure on Russia intensifies on two fronts — a US House bill advancing and confirmed AI-assisted Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine's defense industry. Domestic-control stories round out the picture, from Syria's spreading fuel protests to China's new exit-control law taking effect.

My fact-check confirmed the trigger and current scope: 25-40% fuel hikes and protests already across 8+ provinces with highway blockades. That means the 'spread to additional cities' conjunct is essentially already satisfied (confirmation stage), so the real uncertainty collapses to crackdown vs. concessions. In fractured post-Assad Syria, with multiple armed security actors and no fiscal room to reverse subsidy cuts, a forceful response by at least some authorities within 45 days is base-rate likely — though the new government's fragile legitimacy creates a genuine chance of partial concessions to defuse unrest. Social is my overprediction sector (+12pp bias), so I hold at 0.66 rather than pushing higher, and the political analyst has no track record. Pillars: psychohistory.