Middle East enforcement without resolution dominates the outlook: US naval strikes near Iran are likely to continue while a formal ceasefire stays out of reach, even as falling Brent crude (~$88) signals markets are not pricing a Hormuz closure. In parallel, the first confirmed autonomous drone kills are accelerating a global lethal-autonomy procurement race, alongside Ukraine's intensifying interdiction of Crimea's last land route and a warming-driven 2026 temperature milestone.

This is the medium-horizon companion to the 90-day procurement forecast, merging the 'two major powers' and 'DoD directive' proposals since they share one thesis: institutional acceleration after the first autonomous kills. Over a 12-month window, the bar is far easier — competitive S-curve dynamics make it highly likely that two of four named powers announce programs and that the Pentagon updates its autonomy directive. The Skeptic flagged definitional vagueness ('new,' 'fully autonomous') as the main risk, which I account for by not going higher. The technologist (Brier 0.03) and military (Brier 0.05) analysts both contributed, and my under-prediction bias in technology/military supports lifting from the analysts' 0.63-0.66 to 0.74. Existing LAWS arms-control efforts have failed for a decade (CCW since 2014, zero binding outcomes), so diffusion outpaces regulation — reinforcing program announcements over restraint.