The Ukraine war's escalation phase dominates today's outlook — Kyiv's record drone strike on Moscow virtually guarantees both a Russian retaliatory surge against Kyiv and a wave of FSB collaboration arrests — while the Iran-war aftermath continues to drag in the Gulf, with a confirmed drone strike near the UAE's Barakah nuclear plant set to trigger U.S. naval reinforcement, expanded air-defense deployments, and a predictable pro-Iran disinformation campaign.

Forecast memory shows the prior forecast 'Russia will impose new domestic security measures in Moscow within 60 days' resolved CORRECT at P=0.95. The FSB pattern after every major strike on Moscow (Crocus Hall, Kerch bridge, Belgorod) is rapid, publicized arrests on collaboration/terrorism charges. Political_hawk proposed 0.68 (no track record data available, default weight applied). I push upward because the resolution criterion ('multiple individuals … within 30 days') is well below the historical base rate — FSB typically announces such arrests within days. Sociologist weight only 0.11, but the regime-behavior pattern is so consistent that this is a 'psychohistory' call. Aftermath-stage Trump-domestic chain not relevant; Russia-Ukraine chain in escalation confirms the dynamic.