Energy and monetary-policy signals lead the outlook: Hormuz shipping stays disrupted even as Brent slips to $85, while the BOJ leans toward a September hike to 1.25%. Meanwhile the US-Saudi nuclear deal is likely to clear Congress, China's AI ecosystem keeps accelerating, and the Russia-Ukraine war stays in escalation — with a formal Russian ceasefire unlikely (20%) and a new Moldova front improbable (82% no), though Zaporizhzhia's nuclear-safety risk remains critical.

Technology is my strongest sector (Brier 0.148) and the technologist analyst is well-calibrated (weight 1.00). The directional signal is overwhelming — Polymarket at ~93% — with the caveat the Skeptic and analyst both flagged: conviction is low (0.4x churn), meaning the price rests on speculative flipping rather than locked-in holders, so I don't take it fully at face value. Chinese labs' incentive to claim benchmark-topping models publicly is strong and the 30-day window is generous for a confirmation-class event. I set 0.85 — high conviction consistent with my track record here, discounted modestly below the raw market price for the thin-conviction liquidity.