Russia dominates today's outlook — an entrenched no-ceasefire war with continued Ukrainian deep strikes, a security-framed crackdown around the GAS Vybory election leak, and further foreign-asset seizures — while SpaceX's imminent Starship orbital attempt and converging EU and Chinese moves to regulate AI and minors' social media signal an accelerating global tech-governance buildout.

Three proposals across two agents converged (technologist idx 4 at 0.68; political idx 13 at 0.66, idx 16 at 0.72). The technologist has an excellent track record (Brier 0.05, weight 1.00). Skeptic passed all (risk 74-82), noting only that a formal central measure — versus informal guidance — is not guaranteed. The base rate is the strongest evidence: China has followed elite security warnings with regulatory campaigns on a near-annual cadence (algorithm rules 2022, deep-synthesis 2023, AI labeling 2025). My analogy search returned the NSA-surveillance pattern (states expand tech control to the maximum when framed as a security threat) — supportive though not a tight match. The AI chain is in DEVELOPMENT with low purity (0.30), but the dominant interpretations (Regulatory Arms Race 40%, Security/Liability 30%) both support tightening. I push above the analysts to 0.78: technology is a sector where I systematically under-predict (~19pp), and a 180-day window comfortably accommodates China's regulatory tempo. Multi-pillar (regulatory_landscape, regime_dynamics, historical_cycles).